Controlled supply - Bitcoin Wiki

Why Bitcoin is Superior to Gold

There is a constant war being fought between goldbugs, like Peter Schiff, and Bitcoin enthusiasts so I decided to make an outline, with links, comparing and contrasting gold and Bitcoin. I made this in November of 2019 (thus the information therein is based on figures from that time) but, being scatter brained, neglected to post this for the Bitcoin community to see. The yardsticks I used to compare the two assets included the following: shipping/transactions costs, storage costs, censorship factor, settlement time, stock to flow, blockchain vs clearing house, validation, etc. I will also touch on Roosevelt's gold confiscation executive order in 1933, transporting gold during the Spanish Civil War in 1936, and the hypothetical cost for Venezuela to repatriate its gold more recently.
I will provide a brief summary first then follow that with the outline I made. This information can be used as a tool for the Bitcoin community to combat some of the silly rhetoric coming from goldbugs such as Peter Schiff and James Rickards. I would like to make it clear, however, that I am not against gold and think that it performed its role as money very well in a technologically inferior era, namely Victorian times but I think Bitcoin performs the functions of money better than gold does in the current environment.
I have been looking to make a contribution to the Bitcoin community and I hope this is a useful and educational tool for everyone who reads this.
Shipping/transaction costs: 100 ounces of gold could be shipped for 315 dollars; the comparable dollar value in Bitcoin could be sent for 35 dollars using a non-segwit address. Using historical precendent, it would cost an estimated $32,997,989 to transport $1 billion in gold using the 3.3% fee that the Soviets charged the Spaniards in 1936; a $1 billion Bitcoin transaction moved for $690 last year by comparison. Please note that the only historic example we can provide for moving enormous sums of gold was when the government of Spain transported gold to Moscow during the Spanish Civil War in 1936. More information on this topic will be found in the notes section.
Storage costs: 100 ounces of gold would require $451 per year to custody while the equivalent value of Bitcoin in dollar terms could be stored for the cost of a Ledger Nano S, $59.99. $1 billion USD value of gold would cost $2,900,000 per year while an Armory set up that is more secure would run you the cost of a laptop, $200-300.
Censorship factor: Gold must pass through a 3rd party whenever it is shipped, whether for a transaction or for personal transportation. Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed when crossing international borders. The key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult. $46,000 of gold was seized in India despite the smugglers hiding it in their rectums.
Settlement time: Shipping gold based on 100 ounces takes anywhere from 3-10 days while Bitcoin transactions clear in roughly 10 minutes depending on network congestion and fee size.
Historic confiscation: Franklin Roosevelt confiscated and debased the paper value of gold in 1933 with Executive Order 6102. Since gold is physical in nature and value dense, it is often stored in custodial vaults like banks and so forth which act as a honeypot for rapacious governments.
Stock to flow: Plan B's stock to flow model has become a favorite on twitter. Stock to flow measures the relationship between the total stock of an asset against the amount that is produced in a given year. Currently gold still has the highest value at 62 while Bitcoin sits at 50 in 2nd place. Bitcoin will overtake gold in 2024 after the next halving.
Blockchain vs clearing house: gold payments historically passed through a 3rd party (clearinghouse) in order to be validated while Bitcoin transactions can be self validated through the use of a node.
Key Takeaway from above- Bitcoin is vastly superior to gold in terms of cost, speed, and censorship resistance. One could theoretically carry around an enormous sum of Bitcoin on a cold card while the equivalent dollar value of gold would require a wheelbarrow...and create an enormous target on the back of the transporter. With the exception of the stock to flow ratio (which will flip in Bitcoin's favor soon), Bitcoin is superior to gold by all metrics covered.
Shipping/transaction costs
100 oz = 155,500. 45 x 7 = $315 to ship 100 oz gold.
211 tonnes Venezuela; 3.3% of $10.5 billion = 346,478,880 or 32,997,989/billion usd (counter party risk; maduro; quotes from article)
18 bitcoin equivalent value; 35 USD with legacy address
1 billion; $690 dollars
Storage costs
.29% annually;
100 oz – $451/year
$1 billion USD value – $2,900,000/year
Ledger Nano S - $59.00 (for less bitcoin)
Armory - $200-300 cost of laptop for setup
Censorship factor (must pass through 3rd party)
Varies by country
Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed
Key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult
$46,000 seized in India
Settlement time
For 100 oz transaction by USPS 3-10 days (must pass through 3rd party)
Roughly 10 minutes to be included in next block
Historic confiscation-roosevelt 1933
Executive Order 6102 (forced spending, fed could ban cash, go through and get quotes)
“The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse”
Stock to flow; (explain what it is and use charts in article)
Gold; SF of 62
Bitcoin; SF of 25 but will double to 50 after May (and to 100 in four years)
Blockchain vs clearing house
Transactions can be validated by running a full node vs. third party settlement
(Read some responses)
Cost of electricity to run a full node
Breaking down Venezuela conundrum;
“The last (and only) known case of this kind of quantity of gold being transported across state lines took place almost exactly 75 years ago, in 1936, when the government of Spain removed 560 tons of gold from Madrid to Moscow as the armies of Francisco Franco approached. Most of the gold was exchanged for Russian weaponry, with the Soviet Union keeping 2.1% of the funds in the form of commissions and brokerage, and an additional 1.2% in the form of transport, deposit, melting, and refining expenses.”
“Venezuela would need to transport the gold in several trips, traders said, since the high value of gold means it would be impossible to insure a single aircraft carrying 211 tonnes. It could take about 40 shipments to move the gold back to Caracas, traders estimated. “It’s going to be quite a task. Logistically, I’m not sure if the central bank realises the magnitude of the task ahead of them,” said one senior gold banker.”
“So maybe Chávez intends to take matters into his own hands, and just sail the booty back to Venezuela on one of his own naval ships. Again, the theft risk is obvious — seamen can be greedy too — and this time there would be no insurance. Chávez is pretty crazy, but I don’t think he’d risk $12 billion that way.”
“Which leaves one final alternative. Gold is fungible, and people are actually willing to pay a premium to buy gold which is sitting in the Bank of England’s ultra-secure vaults. So why bother transporting that gold at all? Venezuela could enter into an intercontinental repo transaction, where it sells its gold in the Bank of England to some counterparty, and then promises to buy it all back at a modest discount, on condition that it’s physically delivered to the Venezuelan central bank in Caracas. It would then be up to the counterparty to work out how to get 211 tons of gold to Caracas by a certain date. That gold could be sourced anywhere in the world, and transported in any conceivable manner — being much less predictable and transparent, those shipments would also be much harder to hijack. How much of a discount would a counterparty require to enter into this kind of transaction? Much more than 3.3%, is my guess. And again, it’s not entirely clear who would even be willing to entertain the idea. Glencore, perhaps?”
“But here’s one last idea: why doesn’t Chávez crowdsource the problem? He could simply open a gold window at the Banco Central de Venezuela, where anybody at all could deliver standard gold bars. In return, the central bank would transfer to that person an equal number of gold bars in the custody of the Bank of England, plus a modest bounty of say 2% — that’s over $15,000 per 400-ounce bar, at current rates. It would take a little while, but eventually the gold would start trickling in: if you’re willing to pay a constant premium of 2% over the market price for a good, you can be sure that the good in question will ultimately find its way to your door. And the 2% cost of acquiring all that gold would surely be much lower than the cost of insuring and shipping it from England. It would be an elegant market-based solution to an artificial and ideologically-driven problem; I daresay Chávez might even chuckle at the irony of it. He’d just need to watch out for a rise in Andean banditry, as thieves tried to steal the bars on their disparate journeys into Venezuela.”
submitted by cornish_roots to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

هاوینگ بیت کوین

هاوینگ بیت کوین

هاوینگ بیت کوین

هاوینگ بیت کوین ۲۳ اردیبهشت اتفاق خواهد افتاد. اما هاونیگ بیت کوین چیست؟ تاثیر هایونگ بر قیمت بیت کوین چه خواهد بود؟ چه معنایی برای استخراج‌کنندگان و چشم‌انداز بلند مدت ارزهای دیجیتال خواهد داشت؟ برای پاسخ به این سوالات با ما همراه باشید.

این مطلب در یک نگاه …

۰. سه نظریه درباره تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین ۰. شرخی کوتاه از هاوینگ بیت کوین
مفصل‌تر بخوانید … ۱. مقدمه ۲. هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست ؟ ۳. چه کسی زمان‌بندی توزیع بیت کوین را تعیین کرده است؟ چرا؟ ۴. تأثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین چگونه است؟ ۵. چرا استخراج کنندگان پاداش دریافت می‌کنند؟ ۶. چه اتفاقی می‌افتد اگر پاداش بلاک‌ها کم شود؟ ۷. جمع‌بندی

۰. سه نظریه درباره تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین


برخی اعتقاد دارند که با کاهش نرخ بیت کوین‌هایی که ماینرها می‌توانند به سیستم تزریق کنند، و با فرض ثابت ماند تقاضا، ارزش بیت کوین بیشتر می‌شود. این تئوری به این شکل است که زمانی که عرضه بیت کوین کاهش می‌یابد، تقاضا برای آن ثابت باقی می‌ماند و قیمت را بالا می‌برد. اگر این نظریه صحیح باشد، ما می‌توانیم افزایش قیمت را بعد از هاوینگ‌های بعدی، مشاهده کنیم.


برخی دیگر استدلال می کنند که با توجه به قابل پیش‌بینی بودن این برنامه و آگاهی همه از آن، تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین پیش از اتفاق افتادن آن رخ می‌دهد. این تئوری می‌گوید که، معامله‌گران مدتهاست که می‌دانند پاداش بلوک بیت کوین کاهش خواهد یافت. این آگاهی به آنها زمان کافی را برای آماده‌سازی ‌می‌دهد. در نتیجه در نتیجه افراد بیت کوین می‌خرند و با افزایش تقاضا، و از طرفی دیگر حرکت گاوی قیمت بیت کوین قبل از هاوینگ بالا می‌رود.


برخی دیگر کمی پیچیده‌تر فکر می‌کنند. آن‌ها می‌گویند که با آگاهی افراد از این اتفاق قابل پیش‌بنی، تقاضا برای بیت کوین بالا می‌رود و سرمایه‌گذران زمان کافی برای آماده‌سازی خواهند داشت. در نتیجه تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین (بخاطر این قابل پیش‌بینی بودن) قبل از رخ دادن اتقاف میافتد. برخی از این پدیده با نام پیشخور شدن یاد می‌کند.
حال این افراد می‌گویند که اگر قرار بود هاوینگ بر قیمت تاثیر داشته باشد، باید تا الان تاثیر خود را می‌گذاشت. در حالی که چنین تاثیری مشاهده نشده است. بنابراین اگر تا کنون تاثیری نداشته است، پس از این به بعد، و با رخ دادن آن در ۲۳ اردیبهشت هم اتفاقی نخواهد افتاد.
۰. اگر وقت ندارید این داستان را بخوانید …


پول، دقیقا مثل همه‌ی کالاهای دیگر است. ارزش یک پول به مقدار عرضه آن، مقداری که از آن وجود دارد و میزان تقاضایش بستگی دارد. دولت‌ها هر زمانی که بخواهند می‌توانند پول چاپ کنند. معمولا بانک‌های مرکزی هر چند ماه یک بار جمع می‌شوند تا تصمیم بگیرند که عرضه پول را، با چاپ آن دوباره تنظیم بکنند یا نه. اما اگه شرایط اضطراری پیش آید، این تصمیم خیلی سریع‌تر گرفته می‌شود. درست مثل همان چیزی که با آمدن کرونا شاهدش بودیم. اما بیت کوین هیچ بانکی مرکزی‌ای یا هیئت مدیری‌ای یا جایی که بتواند کنترلش کند ندارد. پس چگونه بیت کوین تصمیم می‌گیرد که چه قدر بیت کوین چاپ کند؟ در طول فرایندی به اسم هاوینگ!


در سال ۲۰۰۸ ساتوشی ناکاموتو خالق بیت کوین ایده‌ای در سر داشت. چه می‌شد اگر آدم‌ها را به طور کامل از شر دخالت دولت‌ها و مراکز بر روی پول خلاص می‌کردیم و مطابق با یک برنامه مشخص که بیشتر از ۱۰۰ سال طول میکشید پول خاصی را خلق می‌کردیم که توسط خود انسان‌ها کنترل می‌شد؟ این پول احتمالا خسته کننده، قابل پیش بینی و قابل اعتماد می‌بود. چرا که افراد می‌توانستند بر اساس آن برنامه‌ریزی‌های بلندمدتشان را با اعتماد و بدون نگرانی درباره اتفاق‌های ناگهانی یا غیرقابل پیش بینی انجام دهند. اما برای آکه بیت کوین ارزشمند بماند، باید نایاب باشد، دقیقا مثل طلا. ناکاموتو حداکثر تعداد بیت کوین‌ها ممکن رو ۲۱ میلیون تعیین کرد. بنابراین عرضه بیت کوین محدود است و به لطف هاوینگ نرخ عرضه غیرقابل تغییر و قابل پیش‌بینی دارد. اما هاوینگ چگونه کار میکند؟


بیایید اول فرایند استخراج را مرور کنیم. اینگونه فکر کنید که استخراج یه قرعه کشی است که هر ۱۰ دقیقه یک برنده دارد. و ماینرها برای وارد شدن به این قرعه کشی، یک مساله ریاضی را حل میکنند و یک بلیت قرعه کشی به دست میاورند. در اوایل، کامپیوترها برای ایجاد این بلیت‌ها طراحی نشده بودند. بنابراین هر ماینر تعداد بلیت زیادی را نمیتونست برای هر قرعه کشی ایجاد کند. در نیتجه هر کسی می‌توانست با کامپیوترش بلیت به دست آورد و برای شرکت در این قرعه کشی و برنده شدن شانس داشته باشه. در واقع مثلا اگر شما ۳ بلیت به دست میاوردید، برای برنده شدن در قرعه کشی ۳ شانس داشتید. اما الان تو سال ۲۰۲۰ ماشین‌های خاصی برای استخراج وجود دارند و شرکت‌ها انبارهای بزرگی را با این ماشین‌ها پر میکنند. این انبارها در جاهایی از جهان هستند که برق ارزان هستند.


هر ۱۰ دقیقه یک ماینر خوش شانس در این قرعه کشی برنده میشود. و به عنوان پاداش به او بیت کوین داده میشود. در سالاهای اول زمانی که بیت کوین ارزشی نداشت این پاداش ۵۰ بیت کوین در هر ۱۰ دقیقه بود. که به پول الان چیزی حدود ۲۵۰ هزار دلار می‌شد! اما در آن زمان ارزشش حتی کمتر از ۵۰ سنت بوده است! با گذشت زمان و با رخ دادن هاوینگ در هر چهار سال، مقدار این پاداش هم کم شده است. در اولین هاوینگ در سال ۲۰۱۲ پاداش از ۵۰ به ۲۵ رسید و قیمت از ۲ دلار به ۲۷۰ دلار افزایش یافت. در سال ۲۰۱۶ قیمت به ۷۰۰ دلار رسید و تا حباب های سال ۲۰۱۷ و ۲۰۱۸ به رشدش ادامه داد. تو هاونیگ بعدی پاداش به ۶.۲۵ می‌رسد اما معلوم نیست اتفاقی مشابه برای قیمت بیافتد یا نه. هاونیگ تعداد ییت کوین‌هایی که می‌توان در قرعه کشی برنده شد را کاهش می‌دهد. اما همزمان تعداد بلیت‌هایی که در هر قرعه کشی می‌تواند شرکت کند هم بیشتر و بیشتره شده است. شرکت تو این قرعه کشی برای ماینر‌ها از نظر مالی صرفه دارد. چرا که در کنار کاهش پاداش‌ها، ارزش بیت کوین هم بالا رفته است.


بنابراین هاوینگ یک فرایند کند، بلند مدت و قابل پیش بینی برای کاهش نرخ تعداد بیت کوین های جدیدی است که به وجود می‌آیند. این فرایند تا جایی که دیگه استخارج بیت کوین‌های جدید هیج معنایی نداشته باشه ادامه دارد. در طول سال‌ها رقابت بین ماینرها بیشتر و بیشتر شده. و حتی ماینرهایی که به دنبال درامد روزانه هستند هم جذب شده‌اند. همه‌ی این‌ها امنیت شبکه بیت کوین رو بیشتر میکند. هیچ کس نمی‌تواند بگوید که تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت چه خواهد بود و قیمت بعد از هاوینگ بعدی چه قدر بالا می‌رود. برخی انتظار اتفاق‌های بزرگی را دارند. شاید ۶ رقمی شدن بیت کوین! در حالی که دیگران فکر می‌کنند که چون این بار همه از هاونیگ خبر دارند، پس تاثیرش از قبل بر روی قیمت آمده است.


یکی از سوال‌هایی که باقی می‌ماند این است که آیا با کم شدن پاداش‌ها، همچنان استخراج برای ماینرها جذاب می‌ماند؟ یادتان باشد که اگه ماینرها سود نکنند، دیگر استخراج نخواهند کرد. به هر حال آن‌ها محض رضای خدا هزینه‌ای برای برق و ماشین‌ها پرداخت نمی‌کنند. پس اگه قیمت بیت کوین بالا نرود، احتمالا ماینرها هزینه انتقال بیشتری را از کاربران طلب خواهند کرد. که باعث میشود سیستم بیت کوین برای انتقال ارزش گران و پرهزینه باشد.
هاونیگ به طور منظم مثل یک ساعت اتفاق می‌افتد و فارغ از نتیجه نهایی، مکانیزمی جذاب برای جلو بردن سیستم بیت کوین و به طور قطع از خلاقانه‌ترین تجربه‌ها در جهان بلاک چین است.
هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست | زمان هاوینگ بیت کوین | تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین

مفصل‌تر بخوانید …

۱. مقدمه

شاید در نگاه اول،فکر کنید هاوینگ، اسم یک فیلم ترسناک درباره قتل‌های زنجیره‌ای باشد. در حالی که هاوینگ، نام یکی از جذاب‌ترین اتفاقات در طول تاریخ بیت کوین است. «هاوینگ» معادل لغت «Halving» است. Halving در انگلیسی به معنای نصف شدن است. برای مثال جمله‌ی «the halving of oil price» به معنای نصف شدن قیمت نفت است. خیلی خلاصه منظور از هاوینگ بیت کوین، نصف شدن پاداش هر بلاک است.
در ماه می (حدود ۲۳ اردیبهشت)، تعداد بیت‌کوین‌هایی (BTC) که در هر ۱۰ دقیقه وارد گردش می‌شوند (همان پاداش بلاک) به نصف کاهش می‌یابد و از ۱۲.۵ بیت‌کنوین به ۶.۲۵ بیت‌کوین می‌رسد. این اتفاق به راحتی قابل دیدن و پیش‌بنی است. چرا که هر چهار سال یک بار اتفاق می‌افتد و قبلا هم دو بار اتفاق افتاده است.
طمع رسیدن به ثروت، چیزی است که توجه‌ها را به این اتفاق جلب می‌کند. مقدار بیت‌کوین‌هایی که به سیستم تزریق می‌شود، به ناگهان کاهش پیدا می‌کند. در حالی که بر روی کاغد، تقاضا ثابت خواهد ماند. در نتیجه این اتفاق (و با توجه به نمودار عرضه و تقاضا در اقتصاد) احتمالا قیمت بیت کوین بالا خواهد رفت. به این ترتیب، این رویداد بحث‌های زیادی را درباره پیش بینی قیمت بیت کوین و نحوه پاسخگویی بازار به آن راه انداخته است.
📷نمودار تقاضا و عرضه بیت کوین‌های جدید وارد شده به سیستم (در هر ده دقیقه) پس از رخ دادن هالوینگ
چند نکته: ۱. این نمودار نمودار اصلی عرضه و تقاضای بیت کوین نیست. چرا که حتی با کاهش نرخ تعداد بیت‌کوین‌هایی که به سیستم وارد می‌شود، باز هم میزان عرضه بیت‌کوین افزایش خواهد یافت. عرضه در این نمودار، مربوط به بیت‌کوین‌های جدید است. ۲. معلوم نیست که چه اتفاقی برای تقاضا خواهد افتاد. اما اگر فرض کنیم تقاضا ثابت است، بر روی کاغذ قیمت این بیت‌کوین‌های جدید باید بالا رود. ۳. با بالا رفتن قیمت بیت‌کوین‌های جدید، قیمت کل بیت‌کوین‌های در بازار نیز تحت تاثیر قرار می‌گیرد.
مایکل دوبروسکی (Michael Dubrovsky)، بنیانگذار بخش تحقیق و توسعه در PoWx می‌گوید:
زمانی که استخراج‌کنندگان، بیت‌کوین‌های کمتری برای فروش داشته باشند، در نتیجه بیت‌کوین‌های کمتری برای خرید در دسترس خواهد بود.
اما کاهش دوره‌ای نرخ استخراج بیت کوین، نسبت به هرگونه حرکت کوتاه مدت دیگری ذر قیمت می‌تواند برای عملکرد بیت کوین اهمیت داشته باشد. پاداش بلوک یکی از مولفه های مهم بیت کوین است. چیزی که امنیت سیستم بیت کوین را تضمین می‌کند. با توجه به اینکه در دهه‌های آینده، این پاداش‌ها به صفر می‌رسند، می‌توانند انگیزه‌های اقتصادی برای استخراج بیت کوین را از بین ببرند. چیزی که در نهایت امنیت شبکه بیت کوین را تحیت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد.
هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست | زمان هاوینگ بیت کوین | تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین

۲. هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست ؟

بیت کوین‌های جدیدی که به عنوان پاداش بلاک، به چرخه بیت‌کوین‌ها وارد می‌شوند، توسط استخراج کنندگان یا ماینرها تولید می‌شود. این استخراج کنندگان از تجهیزات الکترونیکی گران‌قیمتی برای به دست آوردن یا استخراج استفاده می‌کنند. در هر ۲۱۰،۰۰۰ بلاک، یا تقریبا در هر چهار سال، تعداد کل بیت کوین که استخراج کنندگان به طور بالقوه می‌توانند برنده شوند، نصف می‌شود.
📷عرضه بیت کوین و پاداش های بلاکی
در سال ۲۰۰۹، این سیستم با ۵۰ سکه بیت کوین برای پاداش هر بلاک در هر ۱۰ دقیقه شروع به کار کرد. در حال حاضر با گذشت ۲ هاوینگ، این پاداش به ۱۲.۵ بیت کوین رسیده است. این فرایند درزمانی که کل ۲۱ میلیون بیت کوین (احتمالا در سال ۲۱۴۰) استحراج شود به پایان خواهد رسید.
هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست | زمان هاوینگ بیت کوین | تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین

۳. چه کسی زمان‌بندی توزیع بیت کوین را تعیین کرده است؟ چرا؟

ساتوشی ناکاموتو (Satoshi Nakamoto)! خالق بیت کوین، که البته شاید تنها یک نام مستعار از یک فرد یا یک گروه باشد. او تقریبا یک سال پس از انتشار این نرم افزار به جهان ناپدید شد. بنابراین او، یا آنها (ما از این بعد با «آن‌ها» به او اشاره می‌کنیم) دیگر نیستند تا توضیح دهند که چرا این فرمول خاص را برای افزودن بیت کوین‌های جدید به سیستم انتخاب کردند. (و چرا اصلا تعداد آن‌ها را به ۲۱ میلیون محدود کرده‌اند، چرا مثال عدد ۱۰۰ میلیون را انتخاب نکردند؟!)
اما ایمیل‌های الکترونیکی اولیه که توسط ناکاموتو نوشته است، تا حدی این موضوع را روشن می‌کند. اندکی پس از انتشار مقاله بیت کوین، ناکاموتو به طور خلاصه درباره روش‌های مختلفی که سیاست پولی منتخب آنها (برنامه‌ی زمانی که استخراج کنندگان مطابق با آن پاداش خود را دریافت می‌کنند) عمل خواهد کرد و در مورد شرایطی که این امر می‌تواند منجر به رکود (زمانی که قدرت خرید ارز افزایش پیدا می‌کند) یا تورم (زمانی که قیمت کالاها یا خدماتی که می‌توان با یک ارز خرید کرد افزایش پیدا می‌کند) شود توضیح داد.
در آن زمان، ناکاموتو نمی‌توانست حدس بزند که چند نفر از این پول آنلاین جدید استفاده خواهد کرد. آنها درباره اینکه چرا این فرمول خاص را انتخاب کردند، خیلی کم توضیح دادند: «سکه‌ها به هر حال باید از ابتدا توزیع شوند و به نظر می رسد یک نرخ ثابت بهترین فرمول است.» جمله اصلی ناکاموتو به شکل زیر است.
«Coins have to get initially distributed somehow, and a constant rate seems like the best formula.»
در اکثر ارزهای منتشر شده، یک بانک مرکزی دارای ابزارهایی است که به آن امکان افزودن یا حذف آن ارز از سیستم را می دهد. مثلا بانک مرکزی آمریکا، می‌تواند دلار چاپ کند یا دلارها را از بازار جمع کند. به عنوان مثال اگر اقتصاد در وضع بدی باشد، دولت می‌تواند گردش مالی را افزایش داده و با خرید اوراق بهادار از بانک‌ها به افراد وام‌ دهد. از طرف دیگر، اگر دولت بخواهد دلارها را از اقتصاد خارج کند، می تواند اوراق بهادار را خود را به افراد بفروشد.
در آن زمان، ناکاموتو نمی‌توانست حدس بزند که چند نفر از این پول آنلاین جدید استفاده خواهد کرد. (حتی نمی‌دانست که اصلا کسی استفاده خواهد کرد یا نه)
At the time, Nakamoto couldn’t have known how many people would use the new online money (if anyone).
چه خوب باشد چه بد، بیت کوین کمی با بقیه فرق دارد. مقدار عرضه‌ی این ارز و زمان آن دقیقا مطابق با یک برنامه زمان‌بندی مشخص تعیین شده. و این برنامه غیر قابل تغییر است.
بر خلاف سیاست پولی ارزهای صادر شده دولتی، که از طریق فرآیندهای سیاسی و نهادهای انسانی وضع می‌شود، سیاست پولی بیت کوین توسط کدی که در شبکه پخش می‌شود، تعیین می‌شود. اگر این کد بخواهد تغییر کند، نیاز به یک هماهنگی و توافق جمعی در بین کل جامعه و شبکه بیت کوین است.
بلاکچین دات کام ( در یکی از مطالب خود که در وبلاگش پیش از هاوینگ سال ۲۰۱۶ منتشر شد می‌گوید: «بر خلاف اکثر ارزهای ملی که می‌شناسیم، مانند دلار یا یورو، بیت کوین با یک عرضه ثابت و برنامه زمان‌بندی قابل پیش‌بینی طراحی شده است. فقط ۲۱ میلیون بیت کوین وجود خواهد داشت. این تعداد از پیش تعیین شده باعث محدود شدن آن می‌شود. این محدودیت و کمیابی بیت کوین (مانند طلا) در کنار کاربرد آن است که باعث حفظ ارزش آن در بازار می‌شود.»
یکی دیگر از جنبه های منحصر به فرد بیت کوین، برنامه ناکاموتو برای پاداش بلاک‌ها است. پاداش بلاک‌ها در طول زمان کاهش پیدا می‌کند. این موضوع یکی دیگر از تفاوت‌های بیت کوین با سیستم های مالی مدرن است. سیستم‌هایی که در آن بانک های مرکزی عرضه پول را کنترل می‌کنند. برخلاف بیت کوین، عرضه دلار از سال ۲۰۰۰ تا کنون حدودا سه برابر شده است.

ناکاموتو سرنخ‌هایی را از این که بیت کوین را به دلایل سیاسی به وجود آورده جای گذاشته است.

اولین بلاک بلاکچین بیتکوین Genesis block است. این بلاک که ده ساله شده در ۳ ژانویه ۲۰۰۹ توسط ساتوشی استخراج شد. نکته جالب پیام مخفی­ است که ساتوشی در آن قرار داده. یکی از پارامتر‌هایی که در هر بلاکی ذخیره می‌شود کوین­ بیس (Coinbase) نام دارد. کوی­ن‌بیس پارامتری است که میزان پاداش ماینرها به ازای ساخت یک بلاک را معین می‌کند. اما در اولین بلاک یا همان بلاک جنسیس، می­‌توان هر متغییری را در آن جای داد. نکته جالب این است که ناکاموتو رشته­ ی (string) زیر را در این بلاک جای داده است:
{۰۴FFFF001D0104455468652054696D65732030332F4A616E2F323030 39204368616E63656C6C6F72206F6E206272696E6B206F66207365636 F6E64206261696C6F757420666F722062616E6B73}
پس از رمزگشایی این رشته متن زیر به دست می‌آید.
{The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks}.
که معنای آن این است: «روزنامه The Times در تاریخ ۳ ژانویه ۲۰۰۹ رئیس خزانه‌داری [انگلستان] در آستانه‌ی اهدای کمک مالی به بانک‌ها است.». این پیام بی‌ثباتی­‌های اقتصادی که بخاطر استفاده­‌ی گسترده از سیستم بانکداری ذخیره کسری به وجود آمده است را سرزنش می‌کند. در سیستم ذخیره کسری، بانک می‌تواند پول افراد را به افراد یا شرکت­‌های دیگر وام دهد. در واقع، می‌تواند پول تولید کند!
بسیاری این پیام را به عنوان نشانه‌ای از عقاید و اهداف سیاسی ناکاموتو تفسیر می‌کنند. بیت کوین در صورت پذیرفته شدن توسط جوامع، می‌تواند قدرت پولی را که بانک‌ها و دولت‌ها بر سیاست‌های پولی دارند را کاهش دهد. هیچ نهاد مرکزی نمی‌تواند بیت کوین را خارج از برنامه دقیق آن ایجاد کند.
هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست | زمان هاوینگ بیت کوین | تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین

۴. تأثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین چگونه است؟

بسیاری از افراد فکر می‌کنندکه تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین مثبت است. تا جایی که آن را تا حد بسیار زیادی افزایش می‌دهد. برای همین موضوع نیز توجه خیلی‌ها به هاوینگ جلب شده است. اما حقیقت این است که، هیچ کس نمی‌داند چه اتفاقی خواهد افتاد. بیت کوین تاکنون دو بار هاوینگ را تجربه کرده است.
📷جدول زمان‌بندی هاوینگ‌های بیت کوین
هاوینگ سال ۲۰۱۲ برای اولین بار نشان داد که بازار چگونه به آن واکنش نشان خواهد داد. تا آن زمان، جامعه بیت کوین خیلی دقیق نمی‌دانست (یا همه‌ی آن‌ها نمی‌دانستند) که چگونه یک کاهش ناگهانی در پاداش می‌تواند روی شبکه تاثیر بگذارد. تنها اندکی پس از هاوینگ بود که دیدند با هاوینگ قیمت شروع به افزایش کرد.
دومین هاوینگ که در سال ۲۰۱۶ رخ داد، کاملا پیش‌بینی شده بود. درست مانند همین هاونیگی که در پیش است. مثال الان که برخی از سایت‌ها مانند یک روز شمار برای آن قرار دادند، در آن زمان نیز این روز شمار وجود داشت. همه به دنبال آن بودند تا ببیند هاوینگ چه تاثیری بر قیمت خواهد داشت.
در تاریخ ۱۶ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۶، روزی که هاونیگ دوم رخ داد، قیمت ۱۰ درصد کاهش یافت و به ۶۱۰ دلار رسید، اما سپس به همان جایی که قبلا بود بازگشت. شواهد اندکی وجود داشت که نشان می‌داد کاهش ناگهانی نرخ استخراج بیت کوین تاثیر طولانی مدتی بر قیمت داشته باشد. در آن زمان، جیکوب دونلیلی تا آنجا پیش رفت که این رویداد را «عذاب کسالت آور» خواند.


در حالی که تاثیر فوری بر قیمت بیت کوین اندک بود، بازار به تدریج نسبت به هاوینگ واکنش نشان داد و قیمیتش افزایش پیدا کرد. برخی معتقدند که این افزایش قیمت نتیجه با تاخیری از هاوینگ بوده است. این تئوری به این شکل است که زمانی که عرضه بیت کوین کاهش می‌یابد، تقاضا برای آن ثابت باقی می‌ماند و قیمت را بالا می‌برد. اگر این نظریه صحیح باشد، ما می‌توانیم افزایش قیمت‌های مشابه را بعد از هاوینگ‌های بعدی، از جمله هاوینگ امسال مشاهده کنیم.
برخی دیگر استدلال می کنند که با توجه به قابل پیش‌بینی بودن این برنامه و آگاهی همه از آن، این تغییر در نرخ استخراج پیش از آنکه اتفاق بیافتد بر قیمت تاثیر خواهد داشت. آن‌ها تنها معتقند که این تاثیر از قبل گذاشته می‌شود. این تئوری می‌گوید که، معامله‌گران مدتهاست که می‌دانند پاداش بلوک بیت کوین کاهش خواهد یافت. این آگاهی به آنها زمان کافی را برای آماده‌سازی ‌می‌دهد. در نتیجه در نتیجه افراد بیت کوین می‌خرند و با افزایش تقاضا، و از طرفی دیگر حرکت گاوی قیمت بیت کوین قبل از هاوینگ بالا می‌رود.
برخی دیگر کمی پیچیده‌تر فکر می‌کنند. آن‌ها می‌گویند که با آگاهی افراد از این اتفاق قابل پیش‌بنی، تقاضا برای بیت کوین بالا می‌رود و سرمایه‌گذران زمان کافی برای آماده‌سازی خواهند داشت. در نتیجه تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین (بخاطر این قابل پیش‌بینی بودن) قبل از رخ دادن اتقاف میافتد. برخی از این پدیده با نام پیشخور شدن یاد می‌کند.
حال این افراد می‌گویند که اگر قرار بود هاوینگ بر قیمت تاثیر داشته باشد، باید تا الان تاثیر خود را می‌گذاشت. در حالی که چنین تاثیری مشاهده نشده است. بنابراین اگر تا کنون تاثیری نداشته است، پس از این به بعد، و با رخ دادن آن در ۲۳ اردیبهشت هم اتفاقی نخواهد افتاد.
هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست | زمان هاوینگ بیت کوین | تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین

۵. چرا استخراج کنندگان پاداش دریافت می‌کنند؟

دلیل آن این است که، بدون این پپاداش بلاک‌ها، بیت کوین اصلا کار نمی‌کند.
هسو (Hasu) به عنوان یک محقق مستقل می‌گوید که بیت‌کوین، تنها در صورتی می‌تواند به فعالیت خود ادامه دهد که بلاکچین آن بتواند پاسخ به دو سوال را بدهد. چه کسی مالک چه چیزی است، و در چه زمانی مالک آن چیز است. بخش اول، «چه کسی مالک چه چیزی است؟» با رمزنگاری حل می‌شود. فقط صاحب یک کلید خصوصی می‌تواند بیت کوین را خرج کند.
هسو توضیح می‌دهد: «بخش دوم، یعنی چه زمانی صاحب آن چیز است، چالش بزرگی است. اگر به این سوال پاسخ داده نشود، مردم می‌توانند بیت کوین‌های خود را دو بار خرج (double-spend) کنند.
بدون پاداش بلاک، شبکه در هرج و مرج خواهد بود. هسو توضیح می‌دهد که استخراج‌کنندگان، در صورت داشتن قدرت محاسباتی کافی، خودشان می‌توانند به دو طریق به شبکه حمله کنند! اول با دوبار خرج کردن بیت ‌کوین‌ها و دوم با متوقف کردن معاملات و جلوگیری ار انجام شدن آن‌ها. اما باید گفت که آن‌ها هیچ کدام از این کارها را نمی‌کنند. چرا که در این صورت پاداش بلاک را از دست خواهند داد.
به عبارت دیگر ، در صورت عدم پیروی از قوانین ، استخراج کنندگان پول از دست می‌دهند
هرچه قدرت پردازشگرهای محاسباتی بیشتری به سمت بیت کوین هدایت شود، حمله به آن سخت تر می‌شود. چرا که یک مهاجم برای اجرای حمله بخ شبکه، نیاز به بخش قابل توجهی از این قدرت پردازشی، معروف به hashrate دارد. هرچه استخراج کنندگان از طریق پاداش‌های بلوکی بتوانند درآمد بیشتری کسب کنند، قدرت استخراج بیشتری به سمت بیت کوین می‌آید و به این ترتیب از شبکه محافظت می‌شود.
هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست | زمان هاوینگ بیت کوین | تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین

۶. چه اتفاقی می‌افتد اگر پاداش بلاک‌ها کم شود؟

دقیقا به همین خاطر است که کاهش دوره‌ای پاداش‌ها به یک نگرانی و مساله تبدیل می‌شود. اگر پاداش بلاک‌ها کاهش یابد، امنیت شبکه چگونه تامین خواهد شد؟!
استخارج کنندگان برای ادامه دادن به استخراج (یا در واقع تایید یا رد تراکنش‌های شبکه) باید انگیزه یا محرک داشته باشند. آنها باید حقوق بگیرند 🙂 . هیچ استخراج کننده‌ای محض رضای خدا رایانه‌های گرانقیمت و هزینه برق و انرژی خود را صرف این کار نمی‌کند. این در حالی است که بالاخره در نهایت این پاداش به صفر می‌رسد (در سال ۲۱۴۰). ولی باید گفت که علاوه بر پاداش بلاک‌ها، استخراج کنندگان از محل هزینه تراکنش (Transaction fees) نیز درآمد دارند. انتظار می‌رود با سقوط پاداش بلاک‌ها، هزینه‌های انتقال به منبع مهمی از پاداش استخراج کنندگان تبدیل شود.
ناکاموتو می‌نویسد: «در طی چند دهه وقتی که پاداش بلاک‌ها خیلی کم شود، هزینه تراکنش تبدیل به منبع صلی درآمد برای نودهای شبکه (یا استخراج کنندگان)‌ می‌شود. من مطمئن هستم که در طی ۲۰ سال، حجم معاملات یا خیلی خیلی زیاد باشد، یا اصلا معامله‌ای در کار نباشد!»
اما مدت طولانی است که محققان بیت کوین در حال بررسی این موضوع هستند که آیا هزینه تراکنش برای انگیزه دادن برای استخراج کنندگان کافی هست یا نه. یک دیدگاه آت است که هزینه تراکنش‌ها باید در طول زمان افزایش یابد تا بتوان امنیت شبکه را تضمین کرد.
پیش بینی اینکه چه اتفاقی خواهد افتاد غیرممکن است، اما اگر سیستمی می‌خواهیم که بتواند ۱۰۰ سال عمر کند، باید برای بدترین حالت آماده باشیم.
دوبروسکی (Dubrovsky) می‌گوید: «حل این مشکل بدون استفاده از هزینه‌های تراکنش بسیار بالا ممکن نست. چرا که شبکه بیت کوین نمی‌تواند تعداد تراکنش‌های زیادی را در زمان انجام دهد، بنابراین باید از محل همان تراکنش‌های کم، هزینه تراکنش بالای را دریفات کند.»
همانطور که در بالا گفته شد، این پاداش‌های استخراج است که قدرت محاسبات بیشتری را به بیت کوین می‌کشاند، و آن را در برابر حمله‌هایی که سعی دارند قوانین شبکه را زیر پا بگذارند حفظ کند. در واقع، علت آنکه استخراج کنندگان استخراج می‌کنند، به دست آوردن پاداش شبکه است، نه هزینه تراکنش‌ها. محل اصلی درآمد پاداش اتس. معلوم نیست که آیا پاداش‌های کم در آینده حتی در صورت وجود هزینه‌های شبکه، برای استخراج کندگان کافی باشد یا نه.
هسو می‌گوید: «من فکر نمی‌کنم که این هاوینگ امنیت شبکه بیت کوین را به میزان قابل توجهی کاهش دهد. اما در ۸ یا ۱۲ سال، این موضوع واقعا مهم خواهد شد.»
بخشی از مشکل این است که با وجود گذشت بیش از یک دهه از تولد بیت کوین، هنوز هم بازار در حال محاسبه هزینه‌ی واقعی محافظت محافظت از شبکه در برابر مهاجمان است.
دوبروسکی (Dubrovsky) بحث می‌کند که: «هیچ کسی نمی‌داند که برای امن نگه داشتن شبکه بیت‌کوین، چه سطح از امنیت توسط استخارج کنندگان نیاز است. در حال حاضر، بیت کوین چیزی در حدود ۵ میلیارد دلار گردش مالی دارد و تا کنون هیچ حمله موفقی صورت نگرفته است. با این حال، هیچ پیش‌بینی از ارزش و قیمت این امنیت وجود ندارد. ممکن است بیت کوین بیش از حد امنیت دارد و بیش از حد به استخارج کنندگان پرداخت می‌کند. برای پیدا کردن حداقل امنیت مورد نیاز برای جلوگیری از حملات، باید پاداش‌های استخراج کنندگان را تا جای که حملات موفقی صورت گیرد کاهش داد. حال هیچ کسی نمی‌داند که با کاهش پاداش بلاک‌ها، و از بین رفتن انگیزه و محرک استخارج کنندگان، چه بلایی به سر امنیت شبکه خواهد آمد»
او ادامه می‌دهد: «مطمئنا این موضوع برای بیت کوین فاجعه‌بار خواهد بود، اما اگر پاداش کاهش یابد و جامعه بیت کوین کاری برای آن نکند، واقعا رخ دادن چنین سناریویی محتمل است.»
هسو می‌گوید که «امیدوار است» که هزینه تراکنش‌ها به اندازه‌ای کافی باشد که امنیت شبکه در آخر حفظ شود.
هسو می‌گوید: «انگیزه حمله به شبکه بیت کوین، نسبت به ۵ سال پیش بیشتر است. در حال حاضر [رئیس جمهور ایالات متحده] ترامپ، [رئیس جمهور شی جینپینگ] و دیگر رهبران جهان از بیت کوین انتقاد می‌کنند. هرچه بیت کوین بیشتر رشد کند، بیشتر ممکن است که مورد حمله قرار گیرد.»
این موضوع البته در حال حاضر شاید خیلی مهم نباشد، اما چند سال دیگر واقعا مهم خواهد شد. هسو گفت: «پیش بینی اینکه چه اتفاقی خواهد افتاد غیرممکن است، اما اگر ما سیستمی را می‌خواهیم که ۱۰۰ سال عمر کند، باید برای بدترین حالت آماده باشیم.
هاوینگ بیت کوین چیست | زمان هاوینگ بیت کوین | تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت بیت کوین

۷. جمع‌بندی

هاوینگ، یک فرایند بلندمدت، خسته‌کننده و قابل‌پیش‌بینی، برای حفظ ارزش بیت کوین در طول زمان، و کنترل تورم حاصل از عرضه بیت کوین‌های جدید است. هاوینگ این کار را با کند کردن نرخ توزیع در طول زمان انجام می‌دهد. تاثیر هاوینگ بر قیمت، در دوبار قبلی مثبت بوده است. اما اینکه آیا این بار نیز تاثیر مثبتی خواهد داشت، جای سوال دارد.
منابع: ۱. چرا هاوینگ احتمال دارد تاثیری بر قیمت نداشته باشد؟ ۲. هاوینگ چیست؟
submitted by Rabexio to u/Rabexio [link] [comments]

Google's search for Bitcoin Coronavirus overtake Bitcoin halving 2020

Halving bitcoin is a short-term trend due to hyped feelings. Google trend data and price reactions suggest that halving could be an overly hyped incident. In addition, the interest in "Bitcoin Coronavirus" has halved given the safe perspective.
The five-year graph of Google trends and price trends indicate that the mood and online search peakedduring the halving (July 9, 2016) and fell almost instantly over the next few weeks. In addition, the price had taken a downward turn weeks before halving.
Coincidentally, the small increase in the trend before the moon shot rise coincides with the price peak. Therefore, after a certain point, there was an inverse correlation between online sentiments and price
The "Google trend" for the keyword "Bitcoin halving" appears to be falling again, indicating that the bull run may be priced in in half.
If we look at the top five capitalized altcoins - Ethereum, Ripple (XRP), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC), and Bitcoin SV (BSV) - we see that the volume of search traffic largely matches the order of each crypto correlates assets by market cap - with the exception of “Litecoin”, which has more searches than “Bitcoin Cash”.
One of the biggest barriers to entry for disruptive technology is the incompetence of the average consumer. On the other hand, simply chasing consumer illiteracy can be a blessing for some really terrible inventions. In the clash of these two ideologies, we have reached the dumb currency singularity.
The digital currency has been on the way to dumb singularity for more than a decade, and we finally crossed the event horizon at the end of last year. At the end of 2019, the IRS tacitly published a series of guidelines for virtual currencies, in which common cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum were combined with Fortnite V-Bucks and Roblox Money.
I have just been informed that the legal term for the Roblox currency is "Robux". That seems ... fair.
My point, however cumbersome, is that someone who has had some influence with the United States Internal Revenue Service saw his grandchild begging for a Roblox card at the Walgreens cash register and thought, "MY GOD, THE BITCOINS COME FOR THE CHILDREN. " And then, when he expressed his horror, a phalanx of IRS colleagues looked around enough and thought "Yes, that sounds right" that it was lit green for public consumption.
This recommendation (on which the IRS claimed that Fortnite and Roblox players should report all purchases of "Bucks", be it "V" or "Ro" -) was monolithic for almost three months before being as quiet as off the stage was escorted it had arrived. In a bout of Streisand, this change attracted more attention than the addition initially, and the IRS made a formal statement. "The IRS recognizes that the language on our side may be of concern to some taxpayers," they said. "We changed the language to avoid confusion. Transactions in virtual currencies as part of a game that does not leave the game environment (virtual currencies that are not convertible) do not require a taxpayer to state this in their tax returns." "
submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
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2019 in Review: Community, Crime, Courtcases, Craig & Consolidation

2019 in Review: Community, Crime, Courtcases, Craig & Consolidation
2019 has been a tumultuous but amazing year for the development and advancement of blockchain technology. Following the rally to the all-time-highs at the end of 2017 and the intense infrastructure development and ongoing Bear Market of 2018 it was clear things were changing quickly. We are about to enter a new decase and the team at Aelf wanted to look back at 2019 and reflect on some of the events that occurred over the last year to see where the industry might be headed in 2020.
Although the year has been considered a continuation of the 2018 bear market, it didn’t stop development, progression and a myriad of crazy events from occurring. This included the challenges associated with global regulations, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in May 2020, announcement of the Facebook Libra and Telegram Open Network’s (TON) launch delay. This year also saw a myriad of debacles from self-proclaimed Bitcoin creator Craig Wright, the Justin Sun and Warren Buffet lunch situation, the recent claim of Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey’s goal to modify Twitter into a decentralized version of the platform, and President Trump’s Bitcoin statement, among others. Now let’s examine more of what took place during 2019 as we approach the start of the New Year in 2020.
The SEC, Telegram, Facebook Libra, Kik and Blockchain’s Global Regulatory Environment
Many of the world’s governments have been harsh towards blockchain technology in recent years. Particularly, the US Government and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have been very reluctant to ease the regulatory framework for blockchain development in the country. This has become more evident in 2019, with the SEC combatting many blockchain projects this year including the $1.7 billion-dollar token offering of the Telegram Open Network
and the Facebook Libra project. As well the SEC created controversy in a gruesome battle with Kik over its alleged illegal token offering that Kik has sworn to fight to their last breath.
Many proponents of blockchain technology accuse the SEC of unfair policies to put a stranglehold on the development on blockchain in order to prevent the devaluation of the American monetary system. The reluctance for crypto exchanges to set up shop in the US is also becoming more prevalent because of the supposedly biased and unfavourable approach of the SEC. Nevertheless, there are also several major countries including China that have for the most part embraced the advancement of blockchain technology in 2019. China has also nearly finalized the development of the digital Chinese Yuan and announced that that country is going all in on blockchain development despite its sometimes anti-Bitcoin approach.
The Bitcoin Halving Event and its Ongoing Effect on Market Conditions
With the end of 2019 nearly upon us and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event set to take place during May of 2020 the market could be overdue for a bull market of mass proportions. Remember, the last bull market that took place was 2 years ago during December 2017 and was followed by an incredible dump from the all-time-high price of 20 thousand US Dollars to just 3300 USD in December 2018. For the most part, 2018 was a blood-bath for crypto markets and 2019 has not been all that much better. The price did briefly rally up to 14 thousand US Dollars during mid 2019 but has since been reduce by half with the Bitcoin price presently at just over 7000 US Dollars. Bitcoin was designed by its original creators with code written to mitigate the negative effects of inflation. In order to curb inflation, once every 4 years (or 210,000 blocks) the mining rewards that the network automatically generates are reduced in half.
3 Additional Stories to Watch in 2020
In June, the CEO of Tron, Justin Sun purchased tickets through eBay for a charity auction to have lunch with Warren Buffet. Sun paid a record $4.56 million US Dollars in the process becoming the highest bid in the 20-year history of the event. The purpose of the lunch from Sun’s standpoint is to change Mr. Buffet’s viewpoint towards crypto and blockchain tech by inviting several blockchain industry leaders to help sway the famous investor’s perspective. Sun subsequently missed the lunch he scheduled in September because of a sudden bout with kidney stones. At this time, the community will have to wait and see when Sun and Buffet will meet in 2020. Stay tuned.
Back in December of 2015, Craig Wright claimed publicly to be the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. Most believe Wright was lying to gain more fame and recognition in the industry. On November 18th, 2018 Bitcoin SV hard forked from the Bitcoin Cash Network to create it own chain. As noted above, the disgruntled CEO of Bitcoin SV, has for years maintained he led the initial development of Bitcoin. During February 2018, Wright was the subject of a 5.118-Billion-dollar lawsuit by Dave Kleiman claiming that Wright defrauded Kleiman of Bitcoin while working on the initial development of the Bitcoin Network between 2009 and 2013. In August 2019, Wright was ordered by a court of law to pay half the 5.11 Billion in Bitcoin back to Kleiman. Throughout 2019, Wright launched lawsuits against Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, Bitcoin Cash’s Roger Ver and others for calling him a fraud. It seems likely Wright will continue his ongoing Satoshi rhetoric in 2020.
The CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey recently stated that he has hired 5 full-time employees to modify the Twitter platform and make it increasingly decentralized. This may seem like a small step initially, but this project could be expanded easily by someone of Dorsey’s reputation and wealth in the technology industry. Dorsey himself has been a long-term proponent of blockchain technology and an investor in Bitcoin. Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, recently offered to help Dorsey make this dream come to fruition. Additionally, Morgan Creek Capital founder Anthony Pompliano supported Dorsey’s statement noting that, “Jack Dorsey may understand the future better than any entrepreneur on the planet right now.”
This year we saw Kik, Telegram and Facebook Libra face fierce backlash from the most powerful regulatory body in the world, the SEC. We saw the Chinese government announce that they are all in on blockchain development and declare the upcoming launch of their own centralized digital Chinese Yuan. Justin Sun postponed his 4.56-million-dollar lunch with billionaire investor Warren Buffet because of health issues, while Jack Dorsey the CEO of Twitter proclaimed a more decentralized and open version of Twitter to prevent some of the abuse on the platform.
In 2019, the 4-year long Craig Wright and Satoshi Nakamoto saga continued, and we finally are moving closer to the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving event of May 2020 that could change the trajectory of the Bitcoin price for much of 2020 and 2021. It is clear 2019 has been an incredible year for the blockchain industry. With no shortage of uncertainty and scepticism in the short-term, it is likely that 2019 will pale in comparison to the developments of 2020. As we approach 2020, the industry will continue to expand towards mass adoption and the mainstream evolution of blockchain technology. Nevertheless, with the global regulatory blockchain environment evolving in many areas across the world, the uncertainty in the United States remains stronger than ever. There is no telling what will happen in this regard and what will happen with Bitcoin and this amazing revolution in 2020 and beyond.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from the Aelf Blockchain team and a Happy 2020 to all our community members!! Thank You
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A Beginners Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain & Cryptocurrency

As cryptocurrency, and blockchain technology become more abundant throughout our society, it’s important to understand the inner workings of this technology, especially if you plan to use cryptocurrency as an investment vehicle. If you’re new to the crypto-sphere, learning about Bitcoin makes it much easier to understand other cryptocurrencies as many other altcoins' technologies are borrowed directly from Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is one of those things that you look into only to discover you have more questions than answers, and right as you’re starting to wrap your head around the technology; you discover the fact that Bitcoin has six other variants (forks), the amount of politics at hand, or that there are over a thousand different cryptocurrencies just as complex if not even more complex than Bitcoin.
We are currently in the infancy of blockchain technology and the effects of this technology will be as profound as the internet. This isn’t something that’s just going to fade away into history as you may have been led to believe. I believe this is something that will become an integral part of our society, eventually embedded within our technology. If you’re a crypto-newbie, be glad that you're relatively early to the industry. I hope this post will put you on the fast-track to understanding Bitcoin, blockchain, and how a large percentage of cryptocurrencies work.

Community Terminology

Altcoin: Short for alternative coin. There are over 1,000 different cryptocurrencies. You’re probably most familiar with Bitcoin. Anything that isn’t Bitcoin is generally referred to as an altcoin.
HODL: Misspelling of hold. Dank meme accidentally started by this dude. Hodlers are much more interested in long term gains rather than playing the risky game of trying to time the market.
TO THE MOON: When a cryptocurrency’s price rapidly increases. A major price spike of over 1,000% can look like it’s blasting off to the moon. Just be sure you’re wearing your seatbelt when it comes crashing down.
FUD: Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt.
FOMO: Fear of missing out.
Bull Run: Financial term used to describe a rising market.
Bear Run: Financial term used to describe a falling market.

What Is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency that uses cryptography to secure and ensure validity of transactions within the network. Hence the term crypto-currency. Decentralization is a key aspect of Bitcoin. There is no CEO of Bitcoin or central authoritative government in control of the currency. The currency is ran and operated by the people, for the people. One of the main development teams behind Bitcoin is blockstream.
Bitcoin is a product of blockchain technology. Blockchain is what allows for the security and decentralization of Bitcoin. To understand Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, you must understand to some degree, blockchain. This can get extremely technical the further down the rabbit hole you go, and because this is technically a beginners guide, I’m going to try and simplify to the best of my ability and provide resources for further technical reading.

A Brief History

Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto. The identity of Nakamoto is unknown. The idea of Bitcoin was first introduced in 2008 when Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper - Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Later, in January 2009, Nakamoto announced the Bitcoin software and the Bitcoin network officially began.
I should also mention that the smallest unit of a Bitcoin is called a Satoshi. 1 BTC = 100,000,000 Satoshis. When purchasing Bitcoin, you don’t actually need to purchase an entire coin. Bitcoin is divisible, so you can purchase any amount greater than 1 Satoshi (0.00000001 BTC).

What Is Blockchain?

Blockchain is a distributed ledger, a distributed collection of accounts. What is being accounted for depends on the use-case of the blockchain itself. In the case of Bitcoin, what is being accounted for is financial transactions.
The first block in a blockchain is referred to as the genesis block. A block is an aggregate of data. Blocks are also discovered through a process known as mining (more on this later). Each block is cryptographically signed by the previous block in the chain and visualizing this would look something akin to a chain of blocks, hence the term, blockchain.
For more information regarding blockchain I’ve provided more resouces below:

What is Bitcoin Mining

Bitcoin mining is one solution to the double spend problem. Bitcoin mining is how transactions are placed into blocks and added onto the blockchain. This is done to ensure proof of work, where computational power is staked in order to solve what is essentially a puzzle. If you solve the puzzle correctly, you are rewarded Bitcoin in the form of transaction fees, and the predetermined block reward. The Bitcoin given during a block reward is also the only way new Bitcoin can be introduced into the economy. With a halving event occurring roughly every 4 years, it is estimated that the last Bitcoin block will be mined in the year 2,140. (See What is Block Reward below for more info).
Mining is one of those aspects of Bitcoin that can get extremely technical and more complicated the further down the rabbit hole you go. An entire website could be created (and many have) dedicated solely to information regarding Bitcoin mining. The small paragraph above is meant to briefly expose you to the function of mining and the role it plays within the ecosystem. It doesn’t even scratch the surface regarding the topic.

How do you Purchase Bitcoin?

The most popular way to purchase Bitcoin through is through an online exchange where you trade fiat (your national currency) for Bitcoin.
Popular exchanges include:
  • Coinbase
  • Kraken
  • Cex
  • Gemini
There’s tons of different exchanges. Just make sure you find one that supports your national currency.


Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are EXTREMELY volatile. Swings of 30% or more within a few days is not unheard of. Understand that there is always inherent risks with any investment. Cryptocurrencies especially. Only invest what you’re willing to lose.

Transaction & Network Fees

Transacting on the Bitcoin network is not free. Every purchase or transfer of Bitcoin will cost X amount of BTC depending on how congested the network is. These fees are given to miners as apart of the block reward.
Late 2017 when Bitcoin got up to $20,000USD, the average network fee was ~$50. Currently, at the time of writing this, the average network fee is $1.46. This data is available in real-time on BitInfoCharts.


In this new era of money, there is no central bank or government you can go to in need of assistance. This means the responsibility of your money falls 100% into your hands. That being said, the security regarding your cryptocurrency should be impeccable. The anonymity provided by cryptocurrencies alone makes you a valuable target to hackers and scammers. Below I’ve detailed out best practices regarding securing your cryptocurrency.

Two-Factor Authentication (2FA)

Two-factor authentication is a second way of authenticating your identity upon signing in to an account. Most cryptocurrency related software/websites will offer or require some form of 2FA. Upon creation of any crypto-related account find the Security section and enable 2FA.

SMS Authentication

The most basic form of 2FA which you are probably most familiar with. This form of authentication sends a text message to your smartphone with a special code that will allow access to your account upon entry. Note that this is not the safest form of 2FA as you may still be vulnerable to what is known as a SIM swap attack. SIM swapping is a social engineering method in which an attacker will call up your phone carrier, impersonating you, in attempt to re-activate your SIM card on his/her device. Once the attacker has access to your SIM card he/she now has access to your text messages which can then be used to access your online accounts. You can prevent this by using an authenticator such as Google Authenticator.


The use of an authenticator is the safest form of 2FA. An authenticator is installed on a seperate device and enabling it requires you input an ever changing six digit code in order to access your account. I recommend using Google Authenticator.
If a website has the option to enable an authenticator, it will give you a QR code and secret key. Use Google Authenticator to scan the QR code. The secret key consists of a random string of numbers and letters. Write this down on a seperate sheet of paper and do not store it on a digital device.
Once Google Authenticator has been enabled, every time you sign into your account, you will have to input a six-digit code that looks similar to this. If you happen to lose or damage the device you have Google Authenticator installed on, you will be locked out of your account UNLESS you have access to the secret key (which you should have written down).

Hardware Wallets

A wallet is what you store Bitcoin and cryptocurrency on. I’ll provide resources on the different type of wallets later but I want to emphasize the use of a hardware wallet (aka cold storage).
Hardware wallets are the safest way of storing cryptocurrency because it allows for your crypto to be kept offline in a physical device. After purchasing crypto via an exchange, I recommend transferring it to cold storage. The most popular hardware wallets include the Ledger Nano S, and Trezor.
Hardware wallets come with a special key so that if it gets lost or damaged, you can recover your crypto. I recommend keeping your recovery key as well as any other sensitive information in a safety deposit box.
I know this all may seem a bit manic, but it is important you take the necessary security precautions in order to ensure the safety & longevity of your cryptocurrency.

Technical Aspects of Bitcoin

  • Address: What you send Bitcoin to.
  • Wallet: Where you store your Bitcoin
  • Max Supply: 21 million
  • Block Time: ~10 minutes
  • Block Size: 1-2 MB
  • Block Reward: BTC reward received from mining.

What is a Bitcoin Address?

A Bitcoin address is what you send Bitcoin to. If you want to receive Bitcoin you’d give someone your Bitcoin address. Think of a Bitcoin address as an email address for money.

What is a Bitcoin Wallet?

As the title implies, a Bitcoin wallet is anything that can store Bitcoin. There are many different types of wallets including paper wallets, software wallets and hardware wallets. It is generally advised NOT to keep cryptocurrency on an exchange, as exchanges are prone to hacks (see Mt. Gox hack).
My preferred method of storing cryptocurrency is using a hardware wallet such as the Ledger Nano S or Trezor. These allow you to keep your crypto offline in physical form and as a result, much more safe from hacks. Paper wallets also allow for this but have less functionality in my opinion.
After I make crypto purchases, I transfer it to my Ledger Nano S and keep that in a safe at home. Hardware wallets also come with a special key so that if it gets lost or damaged, you can recover your crypto. I recommend keeping your recovery key in a safety deposit box.

What is Bitcoins Max Supply?

The max supply of Bitcoin is 21 million. The only way new Bitcoins can be introduced into the economy are through block rewards which are given after successfully mining a block (more on this later).

What is Bitcoins Block Time?

The average time in which blocks are created is called block time. For Bitcoin, the block time is ~10 minutes, meaning, 10 minutes is the minimum amount of time it will take for a Bitcoin transaction to be processed. Note that transactions on the Bitcoin network can take much longer depending on how congested the network is. Having to wait a few hours or even a few days in some instances for a transaction to clear is not unheard of.
Other cryptocurrencies will have different block times. For example, Ethereum has a block time of ~15 seconds.
For more information on how block time works, Prabath Siriwardena has a good block post on this subject which can be found here.

What is Bitcoins Block Size?

There is a limit to how large blocks can be. In the early days of Bitcoin, the block size was 36MB, but in 2010 this was reduced to 1 MB in order to prevent distributed denial of service attacks (DDoS), spam, and other malicious use on the blockchain. Nowadays, blocks are routinely in excess of 1MB, with the largest to date being somewhere around 2.1 MB.
There is much debate amongst the community on whether or not to increase Bitcoin’s block size limit to account for ever-increasing network demand. A larger block size would allow for more transactions to be processed. The con argument to this is that decentralization would be at risk as mining would become more centralized. As a result of this debate, on August 1, 2017, Bitcoin underwent a hard-fork and Bitcoin Cash was created which has a block size limit of 8 MB. Note that these are two completely different blockchains and sending Bitcoin to a Bitcoin Cash wallet (or vice versa) will result in a failed transaction.
Update: As of May 15th, 2018 Bitcoin Cash underwent another hard fork and the block size has increased to 32 MB.
On the topic of Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash and which cryptocurrency is better, I’ll let you do your own research and make that decision for yourself. It is good to know that this is a debated topic within the community and example of the politics that manifest within the space. Now if you see community members arguing about this topic, you’ll at least have a bit of background to the issue.

What is Block Reward?

Block reward is the BTC you receive after discovering a block. Blocks are discovered through a process called mining. The only way new BTC can be added to the economy is through block rewards and the block reward is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years). Halving events are done to limit the supply of Bitcoin. At the inception of Bitcoin, the block reward was 50BTC. At the time of writing this, the block reward is 12.5BTC. Halving events will continue to occur until the amount of new Bitcoin introduced into the economy becomes less than 1 Satoshi. This is expected to happen around the year 2,140. All 21 million Bitcoins will have been mined. Once all Bitcoins have been mined, the block reward will only consist of transaction fees.

Technical Aspects Continued

Understanding Nodes

Straight from the wiki
Any computer that connects to the Bitcoin network is called a node. Nodes that fully verify all of the rules of Bitcoin are called full nodes.
In other words, full nodes are what verify the Bitcoin blockchain and they play a crucial role in maintaining the decentralized network. Full nodes store the entirety of the blockchain and validate transactions. Anyone can participate in the Bitcoin network and run a full node. has information on how to set up a full node. Running a full node also gives you wallet capabilities and the ability to query the blockchain.
For more information on Bitcoin nodes, see Andreas Antonopoulos’s Q&A on the role of nodes.

What is a Fork?

A fork is a divergence in a blockchain. Since Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network, there’s an overall set of rules (protocol) in which participants within the network must abide by. These rules are put in place to form network consensus. Forks occur when implementations must be made to the blockchain or if there is disagreement amongst the network on how consensus should be achieved.

Soft Fork vs Hard Fork

The difference between soft and hard forks lies in compatibility. Soft forks are backwards compatible, hard forks are not. Think of soft forks as software upgrades to the blockchain, whereas hard forks are a software upgrade that warrant a completely new blockchain.
During a soft fork, miners and nodes upgrade their software to support new consensus rules. Nodes that do not upgrade will still accept the new blockchain.
Examples of Bitcoin soft forks include:
A hard fork can be thought of as the creation of a new blockchain that X percentage of the community decides to migrate too. During a hard fork, miners and nodes upgrade their software to support new consensus rules, Nodes that do not upgrade are invalid and cannot accept the new blockchain.
Examples of Bitcoin hard forks include:
  • Bitcoin Cash
  • Bitcoin Gold
Note that these are completely different blockchains and independent from the Bitcoin blockchain. If you try to send Bitcoin to one of these blockchains, the transaction will fail.

A Case For Bitcoin in a World of Centralization

Our current financial system is centralized, which means the ledger(s) that operate within this centralized system are subjugated to control, manipulation, fraud, and many other negative aspects that come with this system. There are also pros that come with a centralized system, such as the ability to swiftly make decisions. However, at some point, the cons outweigh the pros, and change is needed. What makes Bitcoin so special as opposed to our current financial system is that Bitcoin allows for the decentralized transfer of money. Not one person owns the Bitcoin network, everybody does. Not one person controls Bitcoin, everybody does. A decentralized system in theory removes much of the baggage that comes with a centralized system. Not to say the Bitcoin network doesn’t have its problems (wink wink it does), and there’s much debate amongst the community as to how to go about solving these issues. But even tiny steps are significant steps in the world of blockchain, and I believe Bitcoin will ultimately help to democratize our financial system, whether or not you believe it is here to stay for good.

Final Conclusions

Well that was a lot of words… Anyways I hope this guide was beneficial, especially to you crypto newbies out there. You may have come into this realm not expecting there to be an abundance of information to learn about. I know I didn’t. Bitcoin is only the tip of the iceberg, but now that you have a fundamental understanding of Bitcoin, learning about other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, and Ethereum will come more naturally.
Feel free to ask questions below! I’m sure either the community or myself would be happy to answer your questions.
Thanks for reading!

Related Links



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What are cryptocurrencies?
Cryptocurrencies are peer to peer technology protocols which rely on the block-chain; a system of decentralized record keeping which allows people to exchange unmodifiable and indestructible information “coins,” globally in little to no time with little to no fees – this translates into the exchange of value as these coins cannot be counterfeit nor stolen. This concept was started by Satoshi Nakamoto (allegedly a pseudonym for a single man or organization) whom described and coded Bitcoin in 2009.
What is DigiByte?
DigiByte (DGB) is a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. It is also a decentralized applications protocol in a similar fashion to Neo or Ethereum.
DigiByte was founded and created by Jared Tate in 2014. DigiByte allows for fast (virtually instant) and low cost (virtually free) transactions. DigiByte is hard capped at 21 billion coins which will ever be mined, over a period of 21 years. DigiByte was never an ICO and was mined/created in the same way that Bitcoin or Litecoin initially were.
DigiByte is the fastest UTXO PoW scalable block-chain in the world. We’ll cover what this really means down below.
DigiByte has put forth and applied solutions to many of the problems that have plagued Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general – those being:
We will address these point by point in the subsequent sections.
The DigiByte Protocol
DigiByte maintains these properties through use of various technological innovations which we will briefly address below.
Why so many coins? 21 Billion
When initially conceived Bitcoin was the first of a kind! And came into the hands of a few! The beginnings of a coin such as Bitcoin were difficult, it had to go through a lot of initial growth pains which following coins did not have to face. It is for this reason among others why I believe Bitcoin was capped at 21 million; and why today it has thus secured a place as digital gold.
When Bitcoin was first invented no one knew anything about cryptocurrencies, for the inventor to get them out to the public he would have to give them away. This is how the first Bitcoins were probably passed on, for free! But then as interest grew so did the community. For them to be able to build something and create something which could go on to have actual value, it would have to go through a steady growth phase. Therefore, the control of inflation through mining was extremely important. Also, why the cap for Bitcoin was probably set so low - to allow these coins to amass value without being destroyed by inflation (from mining) in the same way fiat is today! In my mind Satoshi Nakamoto knew what he was doing when setting it at 21 million BTC and must have known and even anticipated others would take his design and build on top of it.
At DigiByte, we are that better design and capped at 21 billion. That's 1000 times larger than the supply of Bitcoin. Why though? Why is the cap on DigiByte so much higher than that of Bitcoin? Because DigiByte was conceived to be used not as a digital gold, nor as any sort of commodity, but as a real currency!
Today on planet Earth, we are approximately 7.6 billion people. If each person should want or need to use and live off Bitcoin; then equally split at best each person could only own 0.00276315789 BTC. The market cap for all the money on the whole planet today is estimated to have recently passed 80 trillion dollars. That means that each whole unit of Bitcoin would be worth approximately $3,809,523.81!
This is of course in an extreme case where everyone used Bitcoin for everything. But even in a more conservative scenario the fact remains that with such a low supply each unit of a Bitcoin would become absurdly expensive if not inaccessible to most. Imagine trying to buy anything under a dollar!
Not only would using Bitcoin as an everyday currency be a logistical nightmare but it would be nigh impossible. For each Satoshi of a Bitcoin would be worth much, much, more than what is realistically manageable.
This is where DigiByte comes in and where it shines. DigiByte aims to be used world-wide as an international currency! Not to be hoarded in the same way Bitcoin is. If we were to do some of the same calculations with DigiByte we'd find that the numbers are a lot more reasonable.
At 7.6 billion people, each person could own 2.76315789474 DGB. Each whole unit of DGB would be worth approximately $3,809.52.
This is much more manageable and remember in an extreme case where everyone used DigiByte for everything! I don't expect this to happen anytime soon, but with the supply of DigiByte it would allow us to live and transact in a much more realistic and fluid fashion. Without having to divide large numbers on our phone's calculator to understand how much we owe for that cup of coffee! With DigiByte it's simple, coffee cost 1.5 DGB, the cinema 2.8 DGB, a plane ticket 500 DGB!
There is a reason for DigiByte's large supply, and it is a good one!
Decentralisation is an important concept for the block-chain and cryptocurrencies in general. This allows for a system which cannot be controlled nor manipulated no matter how large the organization in play or their intentions. DigiByte’s chain remains out of the reach of even the most powerful government. This allows for people to transact freely and openly without fear of censorship.
Decentralisation on the DigiByte block-chain is assured by having an accessible and fair mining protocol in place – this is the multi-algorithm (MultiAlgo) approach. We believe that all should have access to DigiByte whether through purchase or by mining. Therefore, DigiByte is minable not only on dedicated mining hardware such as Antminers, but also through use of conventional graphics cards. The multi-algorithm approach allows for users to mine on a variety of hardware types through use of one of the 5 mining algorithms supported by DigiByte. Those being:
Please note that these mining algorithms are modified and updated from time to time to assure complete decentralisation and thus ultimate security.
The problem with using only one mining algorithm such as Bitcoin or Litecoin do is that this allows for people to continually amass mining hardware and hash power. The more hash power one has, the more one can collect more. This leads to a cycle of centralisation and the creation of mining centres. It is known that a massive portion of all hash power in Bitcoin comes from China. This kind of centralisation is a natural tendency as it is cheaper for large organisations to set up in countries with inexpensive electricity and other such advantages which may be unavailable to the average miner.
DigiByte mitigates this problem with the use of multiple algorithms. It allows for miners with many different kinds of hardware to mine the same coin on an even playing field. Mining difficulty is set relative to the mining algorithm used. This allows for those with dedicated mining rigs to mine alongside those with more modest machines – and all secure the DigiByte chain while maintaining decentralisation.
Low Fees
Low fees are maintained in DigiByte thanks to the MultiAlgo approach working in conjunction with MultiShield (originally known as DigiShield). MultiShield calls for block difficulty readjustment between every single block on the chain; currently blocks last 15 seconds. This continuous difficulty readjustment allows us to combat any bad actors which may wish to manipulate the DigiByte chain.
Manipulation may be done by a large pool or a single entity with a great amount of hash power mining blocks on the chain; thus, increasing the difficulty of the chain. In some coins such as Bitcoin or Litecoin difficulty is readjusted every 2016 blocks at approximately 10mins each and 2mins respectively. Meaning that Bitcoin’s difficulty is readjusted about every two weeks. This system can allow for large bad actors to mine a coin and then abandon it, leaving it with a difficulty level far too high for the present hash rate – and so transactions can be frozen, and the chain stopped until there is a difficulty readjustment and or enough hash power to mine the chain. In such a case users may be faced with a choice - pay exorbitant fees or have their transactions frozen. In an extreme case the whole chain could be frozen completely for extended periods of time.
DigiByte does not face this problem as its difficulty is readjusted per block every 15 seconds. This innovation was a technological breakthrough and was adopted by several other coins in the cryptocurrency environment such as Dogecoin, Z-Cash, Ubiq, Monacoin, and Bitcoin Gold.
This difficulty readjustment along with the MultiAlgo approach allows DigiByte to maintain the lowest fees of any UTXO – PoW – chain in the world. Currently fees on the DigiByte block-chain are at about 0.0001 DGB per transaction of 100 000 DGB sent. This depends on the amount sent and currently 100 000 DGB are worth around $2000.00 with the fee being less than 0.000002 cents. It would take 500 000 transactions of 100 000 DGB to equal 1 penny’s worth. This was tested on a Ledger Nano S set to the low fees setting.
Fast transaction times
Fast transactions are ensured by the conjunctive use of the two aforementioned technology protocols. The use of MultiShield and MultiAlgo allows the mining of the DigiByte chain to always be profitable and thus there is always someone mining your transactions. MultiAlgo allows there to a greater amount of hash power spread world-wide, this along with 15 second block times allows for transactions to be near instantaneous. This speed is also ensured by the use DigiSpeed. DigiSpeed is the protocol by which the DigiByte chain will decrease block timing gradually. Initially DigiByte started with 30 second block times in 2014; which today are set at 15 seconds. This decrease will allow for ever faster and ever more transactions per block.
Robust security + The Immutable Ledger
At the core of cryptocurrency security is decentralisation. As stated before decentralisation is ensured on the DigiByte block chain by use of the MultiAlgo approach. Each algorithm in the MultiAlgo approach of DigiByte is only allowed about 20% of all new blocks. This in conjunction with MultiShield allows for DigiByte to be the most secure, most reliable, and fastest UTXO block chain on the planet. This means that DigiByte is a proof of work (PoW) block-chain where all transactional activities are stored on the immutable public ledger world-wide. In DigiByte there is no need for the Lightning protocol (although we have it) nor sidechains to scale, and thus we get to keep PoW’s security.
There are many great debates as to the robustness or cleanliness of PoW. The fact remains that PoW block-chains remain the only systems in human history which have never been hacked and thus their security is maximal.
For an attacker to divert the DigiByte chain they would need to control over 93% of all the hashrate on one algorithm and 51% of the other four. And so DigiByte is immune to the infamous 51% attack to which Bitcoin and Litecoin are vulnerable.
Moreover, the DigiByte block-chain is currently spread over 200 000 plus servers, computers, phones, and other machines world-wide. The fact is that DigiByte is one of the easiest to mine coins there is – this is greatly aided by the recent release of the one click miner. This allows for ever greater decentralisation which in turn assures that there is no single point of failure and the chain is thus virtually un-attackable.
On Chain Scalability
The biggest barrier for block-chains today is scalability. Visa the credit card company can handle around 2000 transactions per second (TPS) today. This allows them to ensure customer security and transactional rates nation-wide. Bitcoin currently sits at around 7 TPS and Litecoin at 28 TPS (56 TPS with SegWit). All the technological innovations I’ve mentioned above come together to allow for DigiByte to be the fastest PoW block-chain in the world and the most scalable.
DigiByte is scalable because of DigiSpeed, the protocol through which block times are decreased and block sizes are increased. It is known that a simple increase in block size can increase the TPS of any block-chain, such is the case with Bitcoin Cash. This is however not scalable. The reason a simple increase in block size is not scalable is because it would eventually lead to some if not a great amount of centralization. This centralization occurs because larger block sizes mean that storage costs and thus hardware cost for miners increases. This increase along with full blocks – meaning many transactions occurring on the chain – will inevitably bar out the average miner after difficulty increases and mining centres consolidate.
Hardware cost, and storage costs decrease over time following Moore’s law and DigiByte adheres to it perfectly. DigiSpeed calls for the increase in block sizes and decrease in block timing every two years by a factor of two. This means that originally DigiByte’s block sizes were 1 MB at 30 seconds each at inception in 2014. In 2016 DigiByte increased block size by two and decreased block timing by the same factor. Perfectly following Moore’s law. Moore’s law dictates that in general hardware increases in power by a factor of two while halving in cost every year.
This would allow for DigiByte to scale at a steady rate and for people to adopt new hardware at an equally steady rate and reasonable expense. Thus so, the average miner can continue to mine DigiByte on his algorithm of choice with entry level hardware.
DigiByte was one of the first block chains to adopt segregated witness (SegWit in 2017) a protocol whereby a part of transactional data is removed and stored elsewhere to decrease transaction data weight and thus increase scalability and speed. This allows us to fit more transactions per block which does not increase in size!
DigiByte currently sits at 560 TPS and could scale to over 280 000 TPS by 2035. This dwarfs any of the TPS capacities; even projected/possible capacities of some coins and even private companies. In essence DigiByte could scale worldwide today and still be reliable and robust. DigiByte could even handle the cumulative transactions of all the top 50 coins in and still run smoothly and below capacity. In fact, to max out DigiByte’s actual maximum capacity (today at 560 TPS) you would have to take all these transactions and multiply them by a factor of 10!
Oher Uses for DigiByte
Note that DigiByte is not only to be used as a currency. Its immense robustness, security and scalability make it ideal for building decentralised applications (DAPPS) which it can host. DigiByte can in fact host DAPPS and even centralised versions which rely on the chain which are known as Digi-Apps. This application layer is also accompanied by a smart contract layer.
Thus, DigiByte could host several Crypto Kitties games and more without freezing out or increasing transaction costs for the end user.
Currently there are various DAPPS being built on the DigiByte block-chain, these are done independently of the DigiByte core team. These companies are simply using the DigiByte block-chain as a utility much in the same way one uses a road to get to work. One such example is Loly – a Tinderesque consensual dating application.
DigiByte also hosts a variety of other platform projects such as the following:
The DigiByte Foundation
As previously mentioned DigiByte was not an ICO. The DigiByte foundation was established in 2017 by founder Jared Tate. Its purpose is as a non-profit organization dedicated to supporting and developing the DigiByte block-chain.
DigiByte is a community effort and a community coin, to be treated as a public resource as water or air. Know that anyone can work on DigiByte, anyone can create, and do as they wish. It is a permissionless system which encourages innovation and creation. If you have an idea and or would like to get help on your project do not hesitate to contact the DigiByte foundation either through the official website and or the telegram developer’s channel.
For this reason, it is ever more important to note that the DigiByte foundation cannot exist without public support. And so, this is the reason I encourage all to donate to the foundation. All funds are used for the maintenance of DigiByte servers, marketing, and DigiByte development.
DigiByte Resources and Websites
Please refer to the sidebar of this sub-reddit for more resources and information.
Edit - Removed Jaxx wallet.
Edit - A new section was added to the article: Why so many coins? 21 Billion
Edit - Adjusted max capacity of DGB's TPS - Note it's actually larger than I initially calculated.
Edit – Grammar and format readjustment
I hope you’ve enjoyed my article, I originally wrote this for the reddit sub-wiki where it generally will most likely, probably not, get a lot of attention. So instead I've decided to make this sort of an introductory post, an open letter, to any newcomers to DGB or for those whom are just curious.
I tried to cover every aspect of DGB, but of course I may have forgotten something! Please leave a comment down below and tell me why you're in DGB? What convinced you? Me it's the decentralised PoW that really convinced me. Plus, just that transaction speed and virtually no fees! Made my mouth water!
-Dereck de Mézquita
I'm a student typing this stuff on my free time, help me pay my debts? Thank you!
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Your Weekly /r/ethtrader Recap

Sunday, June 30 - Saturday, July 06
Top 10 Posts score link to comments
This is ethereum. 445 64 comments
Moratorium on Libra ordered by US government. Libra seen as a rival monetary system to the USD. 424 164 comments
Bitcoin gets headlines, Ethereum gets the job done 321 55 comments
Tether minting has moved mostly to Ethereum/ERC20 and away from Bitcoin/Omni — because Ethereum actually works. 297 31 comments
Ethereum transaction volumes at 17-month high; surpasses 1 million daily transactions 294 23 comments
Daily General Discussion - July 1, 2019 271 946 comments
NASA discusses Ethereum in their Hyperledger blockchain tests 226 18 comments
Binance Will Change USDT Deposits & Withdrawals to be ERC20-based 218 48 comments
Europe Completes Its First Ever Blockchain Real Estate Sale for €6.5 Million 198 7 comments
Eth2 Phase 0 spec freeze 193 11 comments
Top 5 Discussions score link to comments
I've been in crypto since 2014 and I'm about to pay 400% tax. I live in Israel. 25 111 comments
Ledger Wallet has abandoned its customers for 5 straight months ||| The "MCU Firmware" Debacle 86 111 comments
3-day Golden Cross Imminent? End of July/early Aug? 186 103 comments
Forget Halvings. Ethereum Planning 10 Fold Reduction In 2021 95 48 comments
Too many ratio fudsters have scurried out of the woodwork today, trying to scare people. Only Ethereum has what matters the most - developers, developers, developers........ 101 41 comments
Please let me know if you have suggestions to make this roundup better for /ethtrader. I can search for posts based off keywords in the title, URL and flair. And I can also search for comments.
If you would like this roundup sent to your inbox every day send me a message with the subject 'ethtrader'. Or if you only want a weekly roundup, use the subject 'ethtrader weekly'
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Bitcoin is not a ponzi

Hi all, I see many negative articles about Bitcoin this last week. Also on forums where I post and read people compare bitcoin with the tullip mania (
Its frustating to see. It is tiring. Ok, here is my explanation why it is not a ponzi: First of all, you can't compare bitcoin with the tulips. They have nothing in common. A tulip dies, that makes it a bad investment already. Imagine buying 1 bitcoin and a couple of months later its dead/gone. LOL
Bitcoin is still very young and volatile. Its not a real store of value yet. This is due to monetary inflation. When the next halving comes I expect less volatility and more stable price growth.
Bitcoin now has an inflation of ~ 3.8% because of the extra mined bitcoins. This is already falling to 1.8% per year around 2020 (next halving), which is already close to Gold inflation (~1.3-1.5%).
In my opinion Gold & Bitcoin are both good long-term investments but I think Bitcoin is better. The crashes and volatilty makes it even more exciting and worth watching. I keep buying every month. HODL. When I become 20 years old I want to have 2 BTC , wish me luck. 😊
submitted by Tominatie to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.
Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.
Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.
The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.
Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.
Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.
In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.
BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.
BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed
4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.
From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.
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Bitcoin 80% Crash after the Halving!

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